Republican Nomination
National 2028 Republican primary support estimate if the primary were held today.
Last updated: November 24, 2025
Current National Estimate
- J.D. Vance 48.5%
- Ron DeSantis 12.1%
- Donald Trump Jr. 9.8%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7.3%
- Nikki Haley 6.2%
- Marco Rubio 5.4%
- Ted Cruz 3.8%
- Tim Scott 2.9%
- Vivek Ramaswamy 1.7%
- Greg Abbott 1.4%
Leader: Vance +36.4
Summary:
Vance holds an overwhelming national lead, with DeSantis and Trump Jr. forming a distant second tier and the rest of the field mired in low single digits. At this stage the race profiles as a dominant front-runner against a fragmented opposition, though early-state dynamics and candidate decisions could still reshape how contested the nomination ultimately becomes.
State-by-State Forecasts
As reliable state-level polling and model inputs accumulate closer to 2028, this section will break out the Republican presidential primary by state, beginning with the early contests.