Ballot Signal

U.S. House Control

A directional view of which party is more likely to control the U.S. House under current conditions.

Last updated: November 24, 2025

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election were held today, which party would you be more likely to vote for in your district for the U.S. House of Representatives?

National Vote Share (Estimate)
Democrats 48.0%
Republicans 43.0%
Leader: Democrats +5.0

Seat Outlook

Translating a national popular vote into House seats is noisy and district-dependent. Rather than model all 435 races, this site focuses on a simple directional view of which party is more likely to control the chamber.

Overall Rating
Current view Lean Democratic edge, but competitive
Summary:

A roughly five-point Democratic lead in the generic ballot suggests a modest advantage for Democrats in the battle for House control, but not a lock. District maps, incumbency, and regional trends can dampen or amplify the national margin, and relatively small shifts in opinion could move the outlook back toward a pure toss-up.