Ballot Signal

Democratic Nomination

National 2028 Democratic primary support estimate if the primary were held today.

Last updated: November 24, 2025

Current National Estimate

  • Gavin Newsom 26.2%
  • Kamala Harris 22.7%
  • Pete Buttigieg 11.4%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9.3%
  • Josh Shapiro 7.4%
  • Gretchen Whitmer 5.8%
  • Wes Moore 4.9%
  • JB Pritzker 4.1%
  • Cory Booker 3.0%
  • Chris Murphy 2.5%
Leader: Newsom +3.5
Summary:

Newsom and Harris form a clear early top tier, with Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez in a second tier and a broader field of governors and senators in the low-to-mid single digits. The race is still fluid and name recognition driven, and the balance among these candidates could shift quickly once debates, endorsements and early-state contests start to matter.

State-by-State Forecasts

As reliable state-level data emerges and the 2028 calendar comes into focus, this section will break out the Democratic presidential primary state by state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and beyond).